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South Australia abandons plans for energy security target this summer after AEMO intervention on gas plants, and due to lack of competition in market.

Is this Hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere more severe than previous ones?

Originally published in the Manchester Guardian on 14 September 1917

Already a peacock butterfly has selected our curtains for winter quarters, but it is early for this fly to be going into hibernation, and many are still on the wing, settling on the scabious and ragworts in the lanes or the flowers in our gardens. Perhaps the yellowing foliage of the sycamore and showers of curled, crisp beech leaves already down had given it a warning; it had a duty to fulfil: a long death-like slumber and a short flight next spring to find the young nettles and lay its eggs, thus linking up the years. It is many years since peacocks and red admirals were so abundant as they are now; everywhere people are struck by the numbers, not only locally nor even in other parts of England. A friend in France writes:– “The crops here are barbed wire, thistles, and nettles; I don’t know what the first produces, but the two last have brought out great lots of painted ladies, red admirals, peacocks, and a positive swarm of small tortoiseshells.” The weeds of the war-scarred, untilled land have produced one beautiful crop.

Related: Red Admiral spotting: desperately seeking a British butterfly revival

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Exclusive: Special rapporteur’s mission finds government has violated obligation to protect people’s lives and health

The UK government is “flouting” its duty to protect the lives and health of its citizens from illegal and dangerous levels of air pollution, according to the UN’s special rapporteur on human rights related to toxic waste.

Baskut Tuncak issued his warning after a fact-finding mission to the UK in January at the invitation of the government in a report that has been shared exclusively with the Guardian before it is presented to the UN human rights council this week.

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There is still no confirmed cause for the toxic haze that affected the Sussex coastline last month

Items from the shipping lanes frequently wash up on UK beaches. Occasionally hazardous chemical containers appear prompting local beach closures. The incident on the East Sussex coast on 27 August was on much larger scale.

Although media reports focused on the beach at Birling Gap, air pollution monitors tell us that the affected area was much bigger. An apparent sharp rise in ozone was detected on Eastbourne sea front at 4:45pm and then about 30 minutes later at Lullington Heath, 8km to the west and 5km inland from Birling Gap – an area of over 40 square km.

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There are many viable options for Australia's energy future. Shutterstock

There was a familiar kneejerk reaction to last week’s announcement by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) that there are risks to our electricity supply after the scheduled closure of the Liddell coal-fired power station in New South Wales in 2022. The sight of the Prime Minister looking for options to keep Liddell open raises the spectre of further reflexive government intervention that can’t end well.

Governments, understandably, want to make sure the lights stay on. But now is the time for perspective, not panic. Because, as the latest Grattan Institute report – Next Generation: the long-term future of the National Electricity Market – shows, there are emerging challenges to the NEM that need dealing with. Make the right decisions now and a return to affordable and reliable electricity supply is on the cards.

Read more: The true cost of keeping the Liddell power plant open

The NEM is an energy-only market. This means that generators only get revenue when they sell their electricity into the market. All costs – including the capital costs of building the plant – need to be covered by the revenue they make when they sell electricity. Anyone who wants to build new generation capacity wants to be pretty certain that the market is going to deliver the revenue they need to cover their costs.

But right now no one is building any generation, unless it is government-backed renewables. This is despite a ripe environment for investment: high current and future prices in the wholesale market and the closure of old power stations. The result, as AEMO pointed out last week, is potential shortfalls in generation and potential blackouts in South Australia, Victoria and NSW over the next few years.

Much of the blame for this investment hiatus can be placed on politicians and the climate change policy mess that is creating so much uncertainty for potential investors.

Read more: Turnbull is pursuing ‘energy certainty’ but what does that actually mean?

But the rise of wind and solar power is also causing problems. Wind and solar energy have zero marginal cost: once the facility is built, the energy produced is essentially free. And they are intermittent suppliers: they don’t produce energy unless the wind is blowing or the sun is shining. So when wind and solar plants are operating, the wholesale price of electricity is forced down. This means there needs to be high prices – sometimes very high – when wind and solar are not operating. This price volatility makes investors nervous that they will not be able to cover the costs of building new generation.

Governments may be tempted to conclude that the market has failed. But intervention may be premature.

There are still five years until Liddell is scheduled to close. Just because a new coal-fired power station will not be built in time to fill the gap doesn’t mean the market cannot respond. Coal was never going to be the market response, given climate change risks. But new gas-fired generators, or batteries to store electricity, could be built in this time frame. Or the market could finally get its act together on what is called demand-response: that is, paying consumers to reduce their electricity consumption during periods of peak demand, so that less new generation is required.

Read more: Managing demand can save two power stations’ worth of energy at peak times

There are no guarantees for government, however. The risks that the market won’t deliver the new generation that is needed are increasing. If nothing changes, Australia will need, in the words of AEMO, “a longer-term approach to retain existing investment and incentivise new investment in flexible dispatchable capability in the NEM”.

Many countries have responded to these same pressures by introducing a capacity mechanism. A capacity mechanism pays generators for being available, regardless of whether they actually sell electricity. Payments for capacity provide extra income for generators, giving them greater assurance that they will make enough revenue to cover their costs.

Any new market-based mechanism in Australia is likely to be better than the scattergun approach of various governments in recent years. Building Snowy 2.0, extending Liddell’s life, or providing state-based backing for new renewable generation might deliver the results needed. But the lack of coordination, planning and strategic thought that sits behind these policies means they probably won’t.

Getting it right

Our report suggests a better way. First, governments should give the market a chance. This means sorting out climate change policy, and quickly. Dithering about a Clean Energy Target, or arriving at a solution that cannot be supported across the political spectrum, will guarantee that investors’ hands remain firmly in their pockets.

Second, work should begin immediately on an additional capacity mechanism, so it is ready if needed. Capacity mechanisms are complex and take a long time to design and implement. There is no one-size-fits-all approach, so careful consideration needs to be given to how one would work in the Australian context.

Finally, AEMO should be asked to provide a more robust assessment of the future adequacy of generation supply. On the basis of this information, the newly formed Energy Security Board should make the judgement on whether an additional capacity mechanism is needed to make sure enough new generation is built.

It is understandable that politicians feel the need to act when faced with the threat of blackouts. After all, they are the ones who get the blame when the lights go out. But caution is needed. Capacity mechanisms are expensive; the peace of mind they bring comes at a price. A pragmatic and planned approach is the best way to ensure that, if a decision is made to redesign our electricity market, that decision is the right one.

David Blowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond the academic appointment above.

Cambridge University has completed the first stage of its ambitious £1bn development of homes, shops and schools on the city’s outlying farmland

At the centre of debates about green belts is the question of trust. In theory it should be possible to build on a very small proportion of the nation’s green belts in such a way that affordable housing and sustainable communities are created, and more people have more and better access to nature than before. In practice few people trust that this will happen, as the available evidence is that we will get instead a smearing of developers’ standard products across the countryside, for sale at inflated prices.

The promise of what’s called the North West Cambridge Development is that it will indeed achieve these good things. Here the University of Cambridge is turning 150 hectares of what was flat, inaccessible and somewhat featureless farmland, located between the city and the M11, into a billion-pound urban district the area of which is not much smaller than the historic centre of Cambridge itself. Three thousand homes are planned, half of them affordable, plus 2,000 postgraduate student bed spaces, 100,000 sq m of research facilities, and the schools, shops, surgeries and the like needed to sustain them. Two new public parks are being created, one between the new development and the old city, the other a series of lakes and mounds that buffer the sights and sounds of the motorway.

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Governments, the oil industry and car makers are waking up to the profound changes battery-powered cars will bring

When Jaguar Land Rover followed in the tracks of Volvo last week with its shift to an electric-powered future, the car maker didn’t just talk about hybrids and batteries.

Its chief executive also showed that his company, like governments and oil firms, is finally waking up to the global shockwaves electric cars will bring about. They are far more profound than whether drivers top up via a pump or a plug.

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It’s not about pristine sands – we need seaweed, coral and mangroves to sustain marine wildlife and protect the world’s coasts

To the untrained eye, all beaches can look healthy – the sea gives them a restorative glow. The Beach Ecology Coalition is based in California, but its indicators for a healthy beach broadly hold for Skegness as much as California’s Laguna. Don’t be fooled by pristine beaches. A healthy one should be strewn with wrack: organic litter including seaweed that sustains beach hoppers and birds.

Healthy beaches should be strewn with organic litter

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Environmental lawyer James Thornton says China’s ‘ecological civilisation’ concept is the best response to the world’s environmental crisis

James Thornton’s specialty is suing governments and corporations on behalf of his only client – the Earth – and he’s very good at it. In his four decades of legal practice across three continents, he’s never lost a case.

Acknowledging this in 2009 the New Statesman named him one of the ten people likely to change the world; ClientEarth, the public interest environmental law firm he started in London in 2007 now employs 106 people.

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We are increasingly being polices by robots. What are the implications? And what's the latest in solar technology?

Why, in the mission to improve the health of man's best friend, scientists say greedy Labradors are at the head of the pack.

President Temer is courting the mining companies and their political backers by breaking into pristine rainforest

On 23 August it emerged that the president of Brazil, Michel Temer, had issued a decree abolishing the protected status of an immense area of the Amazon forest. The area is in the north of the country, beyond the Amazon river, going up to the frontiers with French Guiana and Suriname (formerly Dutch Guiana). The estimated size is 4.5 million hectares, the size of Denmark or Switzerland.

The decree was shocking, but not entirely unexpected. Temer is in political difficulties, facing corruption charges and needing political allies. There are more than 30 registered political parties in Brazil, and to get anything done in Congress they form bancadas (“benches” or coalitions). One of the most powerful is the bancada ruralista, consisting of powerful, wealthy agribusiness interests (mostly cattle and soya) together with those who represent mining and other extractive industries. And, making things gloomier, the evangelicals attach themselves to this bancada.

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Unprecedented is a word we are hearing to describe the cluster of hurricanes coming out of the North Atlantic, so are they unprecedented? 

In an extract from his book Ends of the World, Peter Brannen examines mass extinction events and the catastrophic outcome of rising temperatures for all the world’s population

Many of us share some dim apprehension that the world is flying out of control, that the centre cannot hold. Raging wildfires, once-in-1,000-years storms and lethal heatwaves have become fixtures of the evening news – and all this after the planet has warmed by less than 1C above preindustrial temperatures. But here’s where it gets really scary.

If humanity burns through all its fossil fuel reserves, there is the potential to warm the planet by as much as 18C and raise sea levels by hundreds of feet. This is a warming spike of an even greater magnitude than that so far measured for the end-Permian mass extinction. If the worst-case scenarios come to pass, today’s modestly menacing ocean-climate system will seem quaint. Even warming to one-fourth of that amount would create a planet that would have nothing to do with the one on which humans evolved or on which civilisation has been built. The last time it was 4C warmer there was no ice at either pole and sea level was 80 metres higher than it is today.

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Rapa Nui protection area, about same size as Chilean mainland, will protect up to 142 species, including 27 threatened with extinction

One of the world’s largest marine protection areas has been created off the coast of Easter Island.

The 740,000 sq km Rapa Nui marine park is roughly the size of the Chilean mainland and will protect at least 142 endemic marine species, including 27 threatened with extinction.

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Humphrey Head, Cartmel Peninsula Tiny creatures, with remarkable jumping ability, dwell in the carboniferous limestone hills above Morecambe Bay

Dense vegetation alive with birdsong clings to the face of Humphrey Head. Gazing up at the gaping mouth of Edgar’s Arch, a blowhole in Cumbria’s highest limestone headland – and above a bushy beard of trees, shrubs and creepers – I forget to watch my feet. Result? I become stuck in one of the glutinous exiting channels that booby-trap Morecambe Bay’s shores.

Good Samaritans hoist me to my feet, “We’re on a weekend activity hen do,” says the one in the “Game Over” T-shirt. “Glad the tide’s out,” says the group’s instructor, her top labelled “Boss”. “Folk get mired down like mice in those traps with sticky floors. Then the tide sneaks in.”

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Scientists ask whether everyone should have the right to become a "transhumanist" by modifying our bodies with technology.

Environment secretary says EU must combat spread of Xylella fastidiosa by stopping high-risk species from crossing borders unchecked

Europe must implement greater protections against a disease that could threaten UK plants and trees, including oaks, the environment secretary Michael Gove has said.

The horticulture sector is also being urged to take action to prevent Xylella fastidiosa, which is having a devastating impact on plants such as olive trees in parts of mainland Europe, spreading to the UK.

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George W Bush’s presidency never fully recovered from his botched handling of Hurricane Katrina. Barack Obama won re-election just days after Hurricane Sandy struck. So how can presidents respond effectively to natural disasters? And how has Donald Trump managed the response to Harvey and Irma?

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